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China's exports resumed in March, and imports unexpectedly rose sharply.

China's exports resumed in March, and imports unexpectedly rose sharply.

(Summary description)* Export growth rate is generally in line with expectations, returning to normal level * Imports are expected to maintain steady growth * Annual foreign trade is expected to be slightly better than last year 

China's exports resumed in March, and imports unexpectedly rose sharply.

(Summary description)* Export growth rate is generally in line with expectations, returning to normal level * Imports are expected to maintain steady growth * Annual foreign trade is expected to be slightly better than last year 

Information

* Export growth rate is generally in line with expectations, returning to normal level * Imports are expected to maintain steady growth * Annual foreign trade is expected to be slightly better than last year * Trade rebalancing is further showing up with the Spring Festival factor subsiding, China's export growth rate in March fell back to 10% The level, while the import of compensatory surges, led to a small trade deficit. Based on the first quarter data, China's import and export growth rate has steadily rebounded from the end of last year. This year's foreign trade performance is expected to improve. Imports in March increased by 14.1% year-on-year to a new monthly high. Although some are compensatory growth in the sharp contraction of imports in February, imports have seen a modest recovery trend from the first quarter of imports. In the future, with the continued support of the domestic economy, domestic demand is expected to maintain growth, and the trend of trade rebalancing will be further demonstrated. “Exporting 10% of the data, I think it is more realistic, because the export data was very high at the time of January and February, but the freight volume with the sea and the electricity consumption of the main export areas did not match,” Fan Jian, chief economist of the National Information Center. Ping said, "March import data is higher than the previous two months, indicating that domestic demand is gradually increasing." He believes that the first quarter data shows that China is a weak recovery pattern. From the perspective of the external environment, China's foreign trade is particularly unlikely to grow. Zheng Yuesheng, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs of China, also said at the press conference that the growth rate of foreign trade in the first quarter was significantly higher than that of last year. The main environment of import and export policy was continuously optimized, the economic situation was basically established, and the confidence of export enterprises continued to increase. Related factors. China's General Administration of Customs announced on Wednesday that exports rose 10% year-on-year in March, imports increased by 14.1%, and trade deficit was 880 million US dollars. The median estimate of Reuters survey was originally increased by 10.5% and 5.2%, respectively, with a surplus of 15.4 billion US dollars. In February, the export growth rate was 21.8%, and the import accident plummeted 15.2%. Throughout the first quarter, exports increased by 18.4% and imports increased by 8.4%, which is much higher than the 7.9% and 4.3% growth rates of the previous year. The trade surplus in the first quarter was US$43.07 billion, compared with the surplus of 2.1 in the same period last year. One hundred million U.S. dollars. Zheng Yuesheng firmly believes that the above-mentioned favorable release mentioned by him will continue for some time. However, given that there is no sign of a steady increase in external demand, and the rise in labor prices and the appreciation of the renminbi have also kept the operating costs of domestic enterprises high, “the overall judgment can be made. China’s foreign trade import and export situation this year may be slightly better than last year,” he said. Good trade data suggests that China's economy is still maintaining a steady recovery, boosting Asian stocks to strengthen slightly. The Australian dollar/US dollar, which is sensitive to China's data, hit a two-and-a-half-month high of $1.0518. However, China's domestic stock market reacted coldly. The Shanghai Composite Index. SSEC fell 0.5% in the afternoon. The spot RMB/USD also rose slightly to 6.1936 yuan under the guidance of the strong central price, which is not far from the daily limit of 6.1923 yuan. The normal growth rate of export growth is affected by the Chinese Lunar New Year, and China's foreign trade data tends to fluctuate sharply in the first quarter. In the first two months of this year, enterprises rushed to accelerate exports before the Spring Festival, so the export growth rate was as high as 20%. The year-on-year growth rate in March fell back to 10%, which is expected. "Exports are basically in line with expectations. The previous high exports have finally come out. This shows that the growth rate of exports has begun to fall. The growth rate of more than 20% in the future is impossible. It is expected to be at the level of 10%." The political commissar Lu said. According to customs data, after seasonal adjustment, exports increased by 13.5% year-on-year and imports increased by 23.7%. On a month-on-month basis, exports increased by 11.8% and imports increased by 20.2%. According to Zheng Yuesheng, the China Export Managers Index rose to 38.2 in March for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that the export situation is expected to continue to improve. If compared with neighboring South Korea and Taiwan, China's 10% export growth rate in March is also very bright. Taiwan’s March exports grew by only 3.3% year-on-year, while South Korea’s exports grew by only 0.4%. Ding Shuang, a senior economist at Citigroup China, shares the same view. “The export growth rate is roughly in line with expectations. The speed in the previous two months is not sustainable and it is now back to normal levels,” he said. He also believes that exports may also face headwinds in the next few months, and the growth rate is unlikely to exceed the current level, because the US economic growth rate in the second quarter will be weaker than that in the first quarter, and the performance of China's manufacturing PMI new export orders is not particularly strong. Throughout the first quarter, China’s bilateral trade volume with the EU and Japan fell by 1.9% and 10.7% respectively, and the trade between the United States and ASEAN continued to grow steadily by 10.8% and 15.5%. In the same period, exports from the central and western regions continued to grow rapidly, Jiangxi, Anhui and Sichuan. The export growth rates of other provinces and cities were 92.5%, 98.1% and 59.6% respectively. Zheng Yuesheng, a spokesman for the Customs, believes that as the US economy improves, the impact of the European debt crisis will gradually shift, and China’s foreign trade will continue to develop this year. In particular, the development of some emerging markets, BRICS countries, Africa, and South America will also provide strong support for China's foreign trade. The trend of trade rebalancing showed that imports in March exceeded expectations and imports reached a record high of $183.07 billion. Analysts generally believe that this is a "compensation" for low imports in the first few months, especially in February, which is not a trend. Taking the whole year's imports by 14.1% year-on-year, it shows that domestic demand has a certain recovery trend. Earlier, Chinese President Xi Jinping made it clear at the Boao Forum for Asia that China will import about 10 trillion US dollars of goods in the next five years, which also shows the important policy orientation of the new Chinese government's efforts to increase domestic demand. In 2012, when the global economic recovery was weak, the sluggish demand in China led to a trade surplus rising to US$231.1 billion. This has made China face greater trade friction pressures from economies such as Europe and the United States. In the future, as China's domestic demand gradually improves, the import volume will increase steadily, and the trend of China's trade re-balancing will surely become more apparent. Chen Yufei, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, believes that the main reason for the expected increase in imports in March may be related to the accelerated start-up of enterprises, increased purchases and the promotion of import growth after the Spring Festival. In addition, the growth of exports of electromechanical products is relatively large, which means that the import growth rate of incoming feed processing is also growing. "In the future, export growth is expected to pick up further; at the same time, domestic manufacturing is expected to improve, and micro-enterprise imports will increase," he said. "It is expected that foreign trade rebalancing will further show this year, and the share of surplus will further decline." At present, the proportion of trade surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) has dropped to about 2.8%, which is in a reasonable range. Wang Jianhui, deputy director of the First Securities Research Institute, also said that the deficit of 880 million US dollars is actually close to the trade equilibrium level. The small deficit is actually good for China's overall trade situation. "It shows that the Chinese government has made efforts to achieve trade balance." Ding Shuang of Citigroup also said that the deficit in March is not unexpected, because China tends to have a deficit in the first quarter, and the deficit is almost balanced in March. In addition, compared with the first quarter of last year, the surplus growth in the first quarter of this year is still quite large, so the deficit in March is temporary, so don't pay too much attention. "The setting of the central parity of the yuan today shows that the government still has confidence in foreign trade. The surplus will continue, and the renminbi is also a trend of gradual appreciation," he said. The People's Bank of China set a central parity of RMB/USD today at 6.2548 yuan, a record high since the exchange rate reform in 2005.

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